WNBA Finals Preview | Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury

The WNBA Finals are here, and it’s a matchup that promises grit, star power, and no shortage of physical play. The defending champion Las Vegas Aces return to the big stage, but this time the Phoenix Mercury stand in their way—a team that’s smaller on paper, but playing with edge and confidence after a hard-fought run through the playoffs. This will be the 3rd Finals appearance in four season for the Aces. And the 5th time for Phoenix, the last being in 2021 and losing to Chicago.

Should the Aces Be Concerned?

Las Vegas enters the Finals as the favorites, but their semifinal series against Indiana raised questions. The Aces barely escaped a Fever team missing key contributors, needing late-game execution to advance. Against a healthy and confident Phoenix squad, Vegas will need sharper performances across the board.

Vegas’s Backcourt: Young and Gray

While A’ja Wilson anchors the Aces, the backcourt tandem of Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray may ultimately decide this series. Both guards rediscovered their form at the end of the semifinals—Young with her versatile scoring, Gray with her steady playmaking. If they carry that rhythm into the Finals, Las Vegas will be much harder to contain. And also don't forget about Dana Evans coming off the bench.

Keys for the Aces

Wilson remains the centerpiece. A four-time MVP, gold medalist, and perennial All-Star, she sets the tone on both ends. But she needs help. Jewell Loyd, while quiet for long stretches in the postseason, hit timely shots and grabbed critical offensive rebounds to close out Indiana. Consistent contributions from her, along with Young, Gray, and Kelsey Plum, will be essential to keep pressure off Wilson.

Phoenix’s Undersized Challenge

The Mercury don’t have the frontcourt depth or size of the Aces, but they’ve thrived by leaning into quickness, spacing, and toughness. The question is whether they can withstand the physical pounding that comes with defending Wilson, Smith and even Gustafson in the paint. The Fever had that challenge when Boston was out with foul trouble. Phoenix may be smaller, but they’ve made it clear: they won’t be pushed around.

DeWanna Bonner’s X-Factor Potential

Phoenix will also look to DeWanna Bonner as a swing player in this matchup. Her performance in Game 4 against Minnesota—where she controlled stretches with scoring, rebounding, and defensive versatility—showed just how impactful she can be. If Bonner replicates that level, the Mercury will have a valuable edge against Vegas’s wings.

Keys for the Mercury

For Phoenix, Alyssa Thomas must continue to be the engine. Her physicality, drives to the basket, and ability to create for teammates are non-negotiable. Surrounding her, Sammy Whitcomb has proven capable of hitting clutch shots, while Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper bring downhill aggression and the ability to draw fouls. If Phoenix spaces the floor and capitalizes on open looks, they can trade punches with the Aces.

A Physical Series Awaits

Both teams embrace physicality, and after a grueling season defined by hard-fought battles, expect the Finals to follow suit. The paint will be crowded, rebounds will be contested, and bodies will be on the floor. This series will not only test talent but toughness.

Final Outlook

Las Vegas enters as the established power, but Phoenix has the depth and determination to make this a true battle. If Wilson and her supporting cast rise to the moment, the Aces can defend their crown. If Thomas and the Mercury role players keep delivering in high-pressure situations, the upset is very much in play.