No Repeat Champs in the NFL
With football season officially upon us, anonymous executives, analysts and fans alike are all making their official predictions for the upcoming 2026 NFL regular season.
Most casual observers would assume that every team that was good last season is going to be good again this season… and most casual observers would be wrong.
In case you forgot, they call the NFL the ‘Not For Long’ league for a reason.
With that in mind, I’m here to tell you why we won’t have a single repeat division winner from last season. Not one.
AFC East
Why the New England Patriots won’t repeat…
The Patriots got fat on a soft schedule last season. In fact, their 2025 opponents had a combined .391 win percentage, making it the easiest schedule for any team since 1999 and the third-easiest schedule over the last 50 seasons. Want some more? Here’s the Murderer’s Row of quarterbacks they faced during that stretch: Geno Smith, Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Michael Penix Jr, Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. They won’t have that same benefit in 2026. Give me the Buffalo Bills to unseat the Pats in the AFC East.
AFC North
Why the Pittsburgh Steelers won’t repeat…
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers stole the division by the skin of their teeth last season. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow both missed large chunks of the year with injuries to open the door, and Pittsburgh was able to sneak in and steal it. Counting on your opponents to get hurt is a fool’s errand, but more importantly, counting on a soon-to-be 43-year-old Rodgers is just stupid. Lest we forget, Rodgers last season led the league in percentage of throws behind the line of scrimmage at 32.5%, and his off-target rate when pressured (41.9%) was the fourth-worst mark for any quarterback over the past five years. Not only won’t Pittsburgh repeat as champs, they’ll finish behind both the Bengals and the Ravens.
AFC South
Why the Jacksonville Jaguars won’t repeat…
The Jags rolled into the playoffs last season by winning eight straight games to close out the year. Problem is, only two of those wins came against winning teams (Chargers and Broncos). As soon as they got to the postseason, they got exposed by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. As much as we like what they’re building down in Jacksonville, the Texans defense ranked number one both in total defense and EPA per play last season, and we can expect them to be even better in 2026. Houston will reclaim their spot atop the division in 2026.
AFC West
Why the Denver Broncos won’t repeat…
The Broncos were historically lucky in 2025 – on multiple fronts. First, Patrick Mahomes missed half the season with a knee injury, and the Los Angeles Chargers lost both of their starting offensive tackles. As we mentioned previously, you can’t count on injuries. Second, Denver tied an NFL record with an obscene 11-2 mark in one score games. Just ask the Kansas City Chiefs if that kind of thing is repeatable. Moreover, of Denver’s 14 wins on the season, 12 of them were of the comeback variety. Expect the Broncos to be back in the postseason, but for the Chargers to win the AFC West.
NFC East
Why the Philadelphia Eagles won’t repeat…
There’s a reason none of the top play callers during this past hiring cycle wanted to sign up to be the Eagles’ offensive coordinator – and it has everything to do with their quarterback. Philly’s passing offense was ranked 29th in 2024 and their total offense slipped all the way down to 24th last season. During Weeks 11-15 in 2025, Jalen Hurts threw five interceptions, and the Eagles offense averaged a miniscule 16 points per game. From Week 16 through the end of the season (including the playoffs), Hurts averaged a paltry 159 pass yards per game. Hurts, or ‘Carson Wentz 2.0’ has one Eagles beat writer dubbed him last Fall, is a dead man walking in 2026. The Dallas Cowboys are taking the NFC East.
NFC North
Why the Chicago Bears won’t repeat…
As lucky as the Broncos were in 2025, they still can’t hold a candle to the Bears. An NFL-record seven of the Bears' wins last season -- including a playoff victory over Green Bay -- occurred after trailing in the final two minutes of regulation. What’s more, the Bears went 3-4 when trailing by 10 or more points in the final five minutes of games; for context, the rest of the NFL went 3-153 in those situations in 2025. The law of averages says at least half of those games will go the other way. When you consider that the difference between first place and last place in the NFC North was just two games last season, it’s easy to see why the Bears will not repeat as champs.
NFC South
Why the Carolina Panthers won’t repeat…
The Panthers lost 3 of 4 to close the season, including what could have been a winner-take-all game in Week 18 against Tampa for the NFC South crown. Thankfully for Carolina, the Falcons stunned New Orleans in Week 18, which allowed the Panthers to literally back their way into the playoffs. The NFC South is easily the worst division in football – every single team had a negative point differential in 2025. Compounding matters is that, unfortunately, a case can be made that Carolina has the worst quarterback in said division. Bryce Young only threw for more than 200 yards five times last season, and he’s thrown for less than 150 yards in almost one-third of the NFL games he’s ever played in. I don’t know who’s going to win the NFC South, but it definitely won’t be Young’s Panthers.
NFC West
Why the Seattle Seahawks won’t repeat…
The Seahawks were easily the best team in football last season, as evidenced by their blowout win over New England in the Super Bowl. Assuming Sam Darnold doesn’t miss more than a handful of games with the hip injury he suffered on Opening Night, Seattle will be very good again in 2026. Here’s the problem, they play in the same division as the Dream Team Rams. Not only does the reigning NFL MVP – Matthew Stafford – still reside in Los Angeles, but with newcomers Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald on the roster, the Rams are also now the only team in NFL history to enter the season with multiple players who have won multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards. With apologies to the reigning Super Bowl champs, the NFC West runs through LA.
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