The $500 Million Man

When Patrick Mahomes put pen to paper on a reworked contract with the Kansas City Chiefs that will tie him to the franchise through 2033 at a tidy sum of $504.75 million, I was genuinely happy for him.

Get that money, Pat. You deserve it.

Hell, given what he’s already delivered to Kansas City since being becoming the starter in 2018 – 3 Super Bowl wins, 5 Super Bowl appearances, seven AFC Championship games, seven AFC West division titles – I’d have told him to ask for $700 million instead to make good on back pay for services previously rendered. Seriously.

When you consider the fact that the 10-year, $450 million deal he signed in 2020 was universally panned by agents across the league as the ‘worst deal in the NFL in the last 20 years’ due to its clunky guarantee structure and ridiculously long duration, tacking on an additional $239 million to his current deal is the least they could’ve done for the 2x MVP and 3x All-Pro quarterback.

And therein lies the problem. The Chiefs are paying top dollar for a quarterback that, quite frankly, doesn’t exist anymore.

Since 2022, when Mahomes became the first player in NFL history to lead the league in both passing yards and passing touchdowns and win the regular season and Super Bowl MVPs all in the same season, his play has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Over the past three seasons, Mahomes’ passing yards are down by over 50 yards per game, his touchdown passes per year are down by 12, his passer rating is down by over 13 points, his interception percentage is up, and he’s taking more sacks than ever. There’s a reason why Mahomes hasn’t sniffed the Pro Bowl the last two years; his play just hasn’t warranted it.

The NFL is often referred to as the ‘Not For Long’ league for a reason. Success is fleeting. Nothing lasts forever. Peyton Manning was benched two years after setting the NFL’s single-season passing touchdowns mark. Aaron Rodgers was dumped one year after winning back-to-back MVPs. Kurt Warner was out of the league altogether two years after making the Super Bowl. Life comes at you fast in the NFL, and Mahomes is no exception.

A big part of Mahomes’ struggles can be traced back to the fact that he’s being asked to carry an inferior roster on a week-to-week basis – and that’s completely fair. Since signing that long-term deal in 2020, Mahomes has watched Chiefs brass dump five All-Pros and two other Pro Bowlers because they just didn’t feel comfortable spending all the money he had saved them by taking a such a team-friendly contract. As the Chiefs’ dynasty continued to rise, their general talent level of the roster steadily fell. Now, he’s going to enter the 2026 season coming off a torn ACL and LCL, and surrounded by a sub-par group of pass catchers headlined by an aging Travis Kelce and the perpetually detained Rashee Rice.

Problem is, when you pay a quarterback over half-a-billion dollars, the expectation is that he can single-handedly make up for the loss of several All-Pro defenders, a revolving door at both offensive tackle spots, and one of the least talented groups of offensive skill position players. The Mahomes of 2022 could’ve done that; I highly doubt this 2026 version can do the same.